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Polish employers confident of prospects for Q3

“Manpower Employment Outlook Survey results present positive traces of a more vivid labour market in the third quarter of 2009. This is a good news both to Polish employers and employees. Though the Outlook is 20 points weaker than a year ago, Poland takes the third place when taking into account results for all 34 countries surveyed.” comments Iwona Janas, Country Manager Manpower Poland. “We perceive the increasing positive Net Employment Outlook for Poland as a good start for further labour market growth.”, Iwona Janas adds.

Employers in eight of the 10 industry sectors forecast headcount growth during the third qurter of 2009. The strongest hiring prospects are predicted in the Restaurants & Hotels, where employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +30%. Solid headcount growth is also expected in the Construction (+23%), the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services and the Public & Social (both +15%).  In the quarter-over-quarter comparison, hiring intentions are stronger in seven sectors, with the most notable improvement of 16 percentage points reported by the Restaurants & Hotels sector employers.

Employers in the Manufacturing industry remain hopelss about adding to their workforces for the second consequtive quarter and the Electricity, Gas & Watter Supply sector representatives report negative plans for the first time since the survey was conducted in Poland. The Outlooks are, respectively, -8% and -13%. Hiring prospects have weakened considerably on the quarter-over-quarter comparison in the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector, where the Outlook declines by 17 percentage points. The Outlook also weakens moderately by five percentage points in the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector. Outlooks for 8 of 10 industry sectors are less optimistic when compared year-over-year with the sharpest declines of 35 and 30 percentage points reported by employers in the Mining & Quarrying sector and the Manufacturing sector, respectively.

On the regional comparisons, in five of the six regions, Polish employers declare adding to their workforces during the third quarter of 2009. The most upbeat prediction is in the North-West (with wielkopolskie, zachodniopomorskie, lubuskie), where employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +14%. In the East (with lubelskie, podkarpackie, świętokrzyskie, podlaskie), employers report a respectable Outlook of +11%, and encouraging signs are identified by employers in the South-West (with dolnośląskie, opolskie) and Central (with łódzkie, mazowieckie) regions, with Outlooks of +10% and +9%, respectively. Meanwhile, employers in the North (with kujawsko-pomorskie, warmińsko-mazurskie, pomorskie) predict an uncertain hiring climate, with an Outlook of -1%. Quarter-over-quarter in three regions, the Outlook strengthens, with the most notable improvements in the Central region (by 10 percentage points) and in the North-West (by nine percentage points). In the remaining three regions, however, the Outlook declines, most notably in the North, where there is an eight percentage point decrease. Outlooks for all the six regions in Poland are less optimistic when compared year-over-year with particularly steep declines of 25 percentage points in the Outlooks for both the Central and the North and a similarly steep decline of 24 percentage points in the Outlook for the South.

Looking at global results, job seekers can expect a slower third quarter hiring pace in the majority of the world’s labor markets. Employers in 11 of 34 countries and territories surveyed expect some positive hiring activity in the coming quarter, but those in 22 are forecasting negative Outlooks with 17 reporting their weakest hiring plans since the survey was established. While employers in all countries and territories are reporting weaker year-over-year forecasts, Outlooks have improved from three months ago in 12 countries. Although weaker than historical patterns, third quarter hiring plans are strongest in India (+19), Norway (+10%), Poland (+9%), Peru, Singapore and Taiwan (all +5%) and weakest in Ireland (-11%), Spain (-8%), Greece and Romania (-7%), Italy, Japan and the UK (all -6%). In those markets where year-over-year comparisons can be made, hiring expectations are decidedly weaker in all countries and territories surveyed compared to 12 months ago.

Of the 17 countries surveyed in Europe, only employers in Norway (+10%), Poland (+9%), Switzerland (+2%) and the Czech Republic (+1%) are reporting positive, but modest third quarter hiring activity. Where quarter-over-quarter comparisons can be made, the forecasts improve in seven of 17 countries. Where year-over-year comparisons are possible, all countries expect cutbacks. Furthermore, employers in Austria, Switzerland, France, Greece, the Netherlands, Romania and the UK report their least optimistic hiring plans since the surveys were launched in these countries. Employers in Hungary are surveyed for the first time this quarter, expanding the reach of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey to four of the most important economies in Eastern Europe. Net Employment Outlook for this coutry is -4%.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 750 Polish employers across 10 industry sectors  and six regions . The Net Employment Outlook is derived from information gathered from one single question: “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2009 as compared to the current quarter?” The Outlook is the result of taking the percentage of employers who anticipate an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the following quarter.